RFI’s Paul Marshall authored a piece this week for The Diplomat titled, “Will Prabowo’s Election End Indonesia’s Era Reformasi?” Marshall discusses the current political situation there and its “disturbing parallels to pre-1998 Indonesia.”

Indonesia’s global significance remains under-appreciated despite the fact that, as Marshall notes, by population, Indonesia is the world’s fourth largest country, third largest democracy, and largest Muslim-majority country. It is also the world’s seventh largest economy. A return to authoritarianism in Indonesia would, therefore, have serious consequences for Southeast Asia and beyond.

Marshall writes:

On October 20, Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as Indonesia’s president alongside his vice presidential running mate, Gibran Rakabuming. Since both are children of previous presidents, their election may herald a return to Indonesia’s tradition of dynastic politics.

Following its declaration of independence in 1945 until 1998 Indonesia had only two rulers, Sukarno and Suharto. Sukarno headed the independence movement and remained in office until he was forced to resign in 1967, following an abortive 1965 coup. Then General Suharto replaced Sukarno as president, following his role in repressing that coup. Eventually, Suharto was himself forced to resign following widespread riots in the wake of the 1998 international financial crisis, which hit Indonesia particularly hard.

The political vacuum left following this long period of stasis led to a rapid succession of presidents. First was former Suharto’s erstwhile vice president, BJ Habibi, whose reforms are still often underestimated. Then there was Abdurrahman Wahid, the longtime head of the country’s largest Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, who pushed for an open and religiously free society but, like many people skilled in the religious sphere, failed to navigate the wilder currents of Indonesian politics. Wahid was followed by Megawati Sukarnoputri, who had honed many political skills as the eldest of Sukarno’s daughters.

Eventually, this rapid succession of presidents was ended by the election and re-election of another former general drawn from elite circles, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who ruled from 2004 to 2014.

This circulation of elites appeared to end in 2014 with the election of Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi. He had established a furniture export business, been elected mayor of Solo in Central Java, ran successfully for governor of the capital, Jakarta, and used this as a springboard to the presidency. Inter alia a heavy metal enthusiast, Jokowi was the first president from outside Indonesia’s established circles and there were high expectations for his tenure. He focused on economic policy and his tenure has generally been marked by stability and growth.

Read the full article: “Will Prabowo’s Election End Indonesia’s Era Reformasi?“