Will the World’s Largest Muslim-Majority Country Slide into Authoritarianism?

July 8, 2025

Writing for Providence, RFI’s Paul Marshall examines whether Indonesia – the world’s largest Muslim-majority country and a democracy – will succumb to authoritarianism as it faces internal threats following the 2024 election of Prabowo Subianto. Marshall writes:

While there are continued disputes about the compatibility of Islam and democracy, many Muslim-majority democracies exist. However, most draw comparatively less attention, as they lie outside the world’s focus on the Middle East.

Now, many of these democracies are under threat. The traditionally open Muslim countries of West Africa, such as Senegal and Mali, have been destabilized by ISIS and kindred groups, followed by interventions from the now-defunct Wagner Group and other Russian proxies.

The largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia, is also facing threats—though from very different, internal sources.

In the years following the 1998 collapse of Suharto’s authoritarian regime, Indonesia came to be regarded as a democratic success story in Southeast Asia. It has held regular, competitive elections, empowered a vibrant press and civil society, and established independent institutions that symbolized a decisive break from authoritarian rule. It also maintained steady economic growth that improved the lives of most of its citizens.

But Prabowo Subianto’s 2024 election as president has raised concerns. A former commander of Indonesia’s special forces, he was accused of violently repressing demonstrators in 1998, was subsequently dismissed from the military, and was barred from entering the U.S. However, he accepted the results when he lost two previous presidential races and—despite some chicanery—was the clear winner in 2024.

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